Who is Likely to Win 2022 Presidential Elections? Read The Explanation

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Who is Likely to Win 2022 Presidential Elections? Read The Explanation

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Just weeks before Kenya’s presidential election, analysts say the unexpected rise in popularity of one candidate could lead to a somewhat unpredictable outcome.

George Wajackoyah is a distant third behind leaders Raila Odinga and William Ruto. But according to one poll, his marijuana legalization platform is gaining support.

Who is Likely to Win 2022 Presidential Elections? Read The Explanation

Who is Likely to Win 2022 Presidential Elections? Read The Explanation
Who is Likely to Win 2022 Presidential Elections? Read The Explanation

George Wajackoyah and another candidate, David Mwahure, are political newcomers in Kenya.

Opinion polls show that George Wajackoyah is unlikely to win the Aug. 9 election. But his approval among Kenyans is growing. One recent poll conducted by Trends for Insights Africa showed his approval rating at 7 percent, equivalent to about 150,000 votes on Election Day.

The leading candidates, former Prime Minister Odinga and current Vice President Ruto, are well ahead of the competition, garnering 50 and 25 percent, respectively.

But a seemingly small number of GGeorge Wajackoyah votes could affect the outcome, possibly denying Odinga a majority or Ruto the votes to trigger a runoff.

Mark Bishach, a political analyst in Kenya, said he sees the potential impact of George Wajackoyah’s candidacy.

“In terms of the impact on the election, I don’t think he will affect it to the point of causing a runoff,” Bishach said, “but he could cost William Ruto some votes because he’s targeting the same audience as William. Ruto does.”

Analysts say George Wajackoyah’s unexpected popularity has to do with his campaign promise to legalize cannabis, which is illegal in Kenya.

In a telephone interview with Voice of America, the law professor turned politician said he wanted to position Kenya as a dominant player in the antidote market, and said he would encourage snake breeding to help pay off Chinese debt.

Despite his voting record, George Wajackoyah said he was confident of a complete electoral victory.

“I’m not going to have a runoff because I’m going to win this election,” he said, “so the question of a runoff makes no sense to me.

Vajacoy’s program appeals to many voters, especially young voters. Political and governance analyst Gabriel Mutuma said Vajakoy’s message appealed to some voters.

“He introduced us to his narrative about marijuana, snakes, snails and hyenas and on some level was able to rally a crowd that thinks like him and thinks he has something to offer,” Muthuma said.

Kenya’s election law requires a presidential candidate to win more than 50 percent of the national vote in order to be declared the winner.

The August election will be Kenya’s third under the constitution adopted in 2010.

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